# 322 大马肺炎疫情预测: 总病例 = 1,365

in cn •  2 years ago 

322 大马肺炎疫情预测: 总病例 = 1,365

[url=https://cn.cari.com.my/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=4217006&mobile=2]大马 2020 肺炎大爆发每日分析与预测[/url]

197 | |
238 | 1.208 |
428 | 1.7983 | +0.5903
553 | 1.292 | −0.5063
673 | 1.217 | −0.075
790 | 1.1738 | −0.0432
900 | 1.1392 | −0.0346
1030 | 1.1444 | +0.0052
1183 | 1.1485 | +0.0041

3月19 开始,每日新病例呈增加趋势。以(某日总病例/前一天总病例)比例来看,这个值每天差不多增加 0.004 - 0.005。有鉴于目前正处在爆发期,预测 3月22 比例值为 0.0055

以此推测,3月22 这个比例值大概是 1.154,因此推测 3月22 总病例数为:

1183 × 1.154 ≈ 1365

日期 | 预测总确诊 |
20200322 | 1,365 |

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